基于财务报表的百果园集团投资价值评估研究
Financial StatementsResearch on the Investment Value Evaluation of Baiguooyuan Group Based on
作者:周韵莹(1.珠海科技学院,广东珠海519040)
[摘要]:随着居民消费升级与水果零售行业的竞争加剧，连锁水果零售企业的投资价值愈发受到资本市场关注。百果园作为中国水果连锁零售行业的龙头企业，于2023年登陆港股市场，本文旨在结合2025年年报数据，合理评估其投资价值，为投资者决策、企业自身发展提供可靠参考。以百果园集团(股票代码:02411.HK)为研究对象，以该企业2021-2025年财务报表为核心数据来源，结合水果零售行业发展现状，采用文献研究法、比率分析法、相对估值法(市盈率法、市净率法、市销率法)及绝对估值法(自由现金流折现法)，对百果园的盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、发展能力进行全面分析，进而评估其投资价值，重点围绕2025年数据展开核心分析。百果园2025年实现营收回暖，营收同比增长7.23%，归母净利润扭亏为盈，实现净利润1.52亿元，盈利能力逐步修复;偿债能力较2024年有所改善，短期流动性压力缓解，资产负债率回落至合理区间;营运能力稳步提升，门店优化后资产周转效率改善，存货管理水平保持行业领先;发展能力逐步复苏，增长动能持续增强;通过估值模型测算，百果园当前估值处于合理区间，长期投资价值逐步显现。百果园的长期投资价值依赖于其全产业链布局的深化、盈利水平的持续提升及行业集中度的提高，本文结论可为投资者提供决策参考，也为百果园集团优化经营管理、提升投资价值提供针对性建议。
[关键词]: 财务报表;百果园集团;投资价值评估;比率分析;估值模型;2025年财务数据
[Abstract]: With the upgrading of residents' consumption and the intensified competition in the fruitretail industry, the investment value of chain fruit retail enterprises has increasingly attracted theattention of the capital market. Baoyuan Fruit, as the leading enterprise in China's fruit chain retailindustry, listed on the Hong Kong stock market in 2023. This article aims to reasonably assess itsinvestment value by combining the 2025 annual report data, providing reliable references for investors'decisions and the enterprise's own development. Taking Baoyuan Group (stock code: 02411.HK) asthe research object, using the financial statements of this enterprise from 2021 to 2025 as the core datasource, combined with the current development status of the fruit retail industry, this article adopts themethods of literature research, ratio analysis, relative valuation (P/E ratio method, P/B ratio method,P/S ratio method) and absolute valuation (free cash flow discount method) to conduct a comprehensiveanalysis of Baoyuan's profitability, solvency, operational ability, and development ability, and thenassess its investment value. The core analysis focuses on the data of 2025. Baoyuan achieved arevenue recovery in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% in revenue, and its net profit turnedlosses into profits, achieving a net profit of 152 million yuan. Its profitability gradually recovered; itssolvency improved compared to 2024, the short-term liquidity pressure was relieved, and theasset-liability ratio fell within a reasonable range; its operational ability steadily improved, after storeoptimization, the asset turnover efficiency improved, and the inventory management level remained atthe industry-leading level; its development ability gradually recovered and the growth momentumcontinued to strengthen; through valuation models, Baoyuan's current valuation is within a reasonablerange, and the long-term investment value is gradually emerging. The long-term investment value ofBaoyuan depends on the deepening of its all-chain layout, the continuous improvement of its profitlevel, and the increase in industry concentration. The conclusions of this article can providedecision-making references for investors and also offer targeted suggestions for Baoyuan Group tooptimize its management and enhance its investment value.
[Key Words]: Financial statements; Baoyuanju Group; Investment value assessment; Ratio analysis;Valuation model; Financial data for 2025
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